House prices in PE11 (Spalding)

This article shows price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand the housing market in PE11 - stats were last calculated on 01 November 2024.

Defining 'PE11'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "PE11", this is also called the postcode district. There are no official postcode district names so I've just labelled it PE11, Spalding. It is shown in red on the map below.

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Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in PE11 is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area

For example in September 2024, 38, Harveys Close, Spalding, PE11 2NX sold for £171,500. Given the internal area of 81 square metres recorded on the EPC, the price per sqm is £171,500 ÷ 81 sqm = £2,117.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-). It is a huge pain to code the automatic conversion for square meters to square feet for all the graphs and charts on PE11 and elsewhere. All the conditionals turn my tidy code for into spaghetti. I will get around to it at some point, but for now you can just divide everything by 10 in your head, move a decimal place and you'll be close enough. If you want to be more precise 1 sqm = 10.76391 sqft.

Distribution of £ per sqm for houses vs flats in PE11

The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqm in PE11 To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £2,350 to £2,500, £2,500 to £2,650, £2,650 to £2,800 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 1,175 sales that took place in PE11, in the last 24 months.

Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in PE11, Spalding. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £2,740 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of PE11 homes.

Box plot of £ per sqm for PE11

Tip: click on the chart to see the values.

The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square metre property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Spalding. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'PE11' as well as the 'PE' postcode area.

  • Median: The horizontal line inside the box represents the median (£ per square meter). This is the midpoint of the data, meaning 50% of the prices are below this value, and 50% are above. The middle price per square metre in 'PE11' is £2,390.
  • Interquartile Range (IQR): The box spans from the 25th percentile (Q1) to the 75th percentile (Q3). This is the range where the middle 50% of the data lies, giving a good indication of the typical price spread. Of the 1,175 transactions in PE11, Spalding half were sold for between £2,030 and £2,740 per square metre.
  • Whiskers: In our case, the whiskers extend from the 9th percentile (at the lower end) to the 91st percentile (at the upper end), This provides a slightly broader view of the distribution by including the middle 82% of records. The whiskers capture most of the variation but exclude extreme outliers caused by data errors in recording sold house prices or internal area.
  • 'n=' is the number of property transactions the box plot is based on; 1,175 for PE11, Spalding.

    • Property price map for Spalding

    Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore 'PE11' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.

    Property price heatmap for Spalding
    House price map for Spalding

    Will PE11 house prices drop in 2025?

    I cannot tell what house prices will do in the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for PE11 (Spalding) compared with the wider postcode area 'PE'. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.

    House price index for PE11

    Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines

    Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).

    The chart above shows changes in 'PE11' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqm for property in PE11 and is set to 100 in 2004. The chart compares trends for PE11, Spalding against those of the broader postcode area 'PE'. What is more interesting is to look at the difference between flats and houses, even those in the same area follow a very different trend, to get a robust enough sample size to see this we need to zoom out and look at house price trends for the entire South Holland local authority.

    The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:

    Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1
    In this formula, the nominal rate is the rate of change before any adjustments, and the inflation rate is taken from the Consumer Price Index. The real rate of return is a more accurate measure of change in value, because £1 today does not have the same buying power as £1 in the past. For example, if a savings account pays an interest rate of 3% per year and the inflation rate is 5% per year, the real rate of return is -2%. This means that the investment's value is shrinking by 2% each year.

    Historic returns for PE11
    PE area PE11 district
    Nominal Real Nominal Real
    20 yr per annum 3.1% 0.4% 2.5% -0.1%
    20 yr total 83.5% 8.7% 64.6% -2.5%
    10 yr per annum 4.2% 1.4% 3.9% 1.1%
    10 yr total 51.0% 14.6% 46.6% 11.3%
    5 yr per annum 3.7% -0.3% 3.6% -0.5%
    5 yr total 20.1% -1.7% 19.3% -2.4%
    1 yr per annum -1.7% -5.6% -1.8% -5.8%
    1 yr total -1.7% -5.6% -1.8% -5.8%

    This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.

    The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:

    Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1

    The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:

    CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1

    Some specific examples:

    • Over the past 20 years, PE11 district have seen a -0.1% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -2.5% in real terms.
    • Over the past 5 years, PE area have seen a -0.3% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -1.7% in real terms.

    Most recent PE11 sales

    For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

    Tip: hover over dots to see details

    Street level data

    Street Avg size Avg £sqm Recent sales
    Pool Close, , PE11 1G 51 sqm £1,597 34
    Atherton Gardens, , PE11 3Y 101 sqm £2,329 24
    Georgian Court, , PE11 2Q 52 sqm £1,651 22
    Park Road, , PE11 1Q 86 sqm £2,054 20
    Pennygate, , PE11 1N 86 sqm £2,120 20
    Winsover Road, , PE11 1H 85 sqm £1,829 20
    Ash Court, , PE11 4X 79 sqm £2,542 20
    Bourne Road, , PE11 3L 90 sqm £2,015 19

    Search for your street here.

    Nearby geographies

    The table below shows how 'PE11' compares to the other postcode districts nearby 'PE11'.

    District Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Sales in last 2yr
    PE9 Stamford £3,120 sqm £3,660 sqm £4,180 sqm 783
    PE8 Oundle £2,810 sqm £3,400 sqm £4,020 sqm 386
    PE7 Whittlesey £2,530 sqm £2,970 sqm £3,330 sqm 1,642
    PE6 Deeping St James £2,610 sqm £2,990 sqm £3,330 sqm 1,000
    PE5 Castor £3,240 sqm £3,730 sqm £4,210 sqm 30
    PE4 Werrington £2,420 sqm £2,880 sqm £3,260 sqm 684
    PE38 Downham Market £2,560 sqm £2,940 sqm £3,470 sqm 469
    PE37 Swaffham £2,760 sqm £3,080 sqm £3,410 sqm 446
    PE36 Hunstanton £2,850 sqm £3,820 sqm £4,590 sqm 276
    PE34 Terrington St Clement £2,430 sqm £2,760 sqm £3,110 sqm 281

    Raw data

    Our analysis of PE11 is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

    Address Paid sqm £/sqm
    38, Harveys Close, £171,500
    Sep-2024
    		 81 2,117
    19, Hawthorn Bank, £120,000
    Sep-2024
    		 71 1,690
    35, Horseshoe Rd, £165,000
    Sep-2024
    		 60 2,750

    See the entire list of all sales in PE11 here.

    About

    I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.