House prices in 'BS1 5', Bristol

This article reveals price per square foot data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in 'BS1 5' (Bristol) - statistics were last calculated on 03 December 2024.

Defining 'BS1 5'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "BS1 5", this is also called the postcode sector. There are no official postcode sector names so I've just labelled it BS1 5, Bristol. It is shown in red on the map below.

Want to change geography?

You can click on the map above to change to a neighbouring sector, or you can use the search form below.

Price per square foot

Knowing the average house price in BS1 5 is not much use. However, knowing average price per square foot can be quite useful. Price per sqft allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square foot as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqft = price ÷ internal area

For example in October 2024, Flat 47 The Panoramic, 30, Park Row, Bristol, BS1 5LS sold for £400,000. Given the internal area of 990 square feet recorded on the EPC, the price per sqft is £400,000 ÷ 990 sqft = £403.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-). It is a huge pain to code the automatic conversion for square meters to square feet for all the graphs and charts on BS1 5 and elsewhere. All the conditionals turn my tidy code for into spaghetti. I will get around to it at some point, but for now you can just divide everything by 10 in your head, move a decimal place and you'll be close enough. If you want to be more precise 1 sqm = 10.76391 sqft.

Distribution of £ per sqft for 'BS1 5' vs 'BS1'

The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqft in BS1 5 To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqft 'buckets' (e.g. £445 to £464, £464 to £483, £483 to £501 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 111 sales that took place in BS1 5, Bristol in the last 24 months.

Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in BS1 5, Bristol. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £498 sqft. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of BS1 5 homes.

Box plot of £ per sqft for BS1 5

Tip: click on the chart to see the values.

The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square foot property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Bristol. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'BS1 5' as well as the 'BS1' postcode district.

  • Median: The horizontal line inside the box represents the median (£ per square meter). This is the midpoint of the data, meaning 50% of the prices are below this value, and 50% are above. The middle price per square foot in 'BS1 5' is £425.
  • Interquartile Range (IQR): The box spans from the 25th percentile (Q1) to the 75th percentile (Q3). This is the range where the middle 50% of the data lies, giving a good indication of the typical price spread. Of the 111 transactions in BS1 5, Bristol half were sold for between £391 and £498 per square foot.
  • Whiskers: In our case, the whiskers extend from the 9th percentile (at the lower end) to the 91st percentile (at the upper end), This provides a slightly broader view of the distribution by including the middle 82% of records. The whiskers capture most of the variation but exclude extreme outliers caused by data errors in recording sold house prices or internal area.
  • 'n=' is the number of property transactions the box plot is based on; 111 for BS1 5, Bristol.

    • Property price map for Bristol

    Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore 'BS1 5' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.

    Property price heatmap for Bristol
    House price map for Bristol

    Bristol house price forecasting

    I cannot tell what house prices will do in the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for BS1 5 (Bristol) compared with the wider postcode district of BS1. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.

    House price index for BS1 5

    Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines

    Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).

    The chart above shows changes in 'BS1 5' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqft for property in BS1 5 and is set to 100 in 2004. I'm comparing the trends for BS1 5,Bristol with the wider postcode district of BS1 What is more interesting is to look at the difference between flats and houses, even those in the same area follow a very different trend, to get a robust enough sample size to see this we need to zoom out and look at house price trends for the entire Bristol, City of local authority.

    The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:

    Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1
    In this formula, the nominal rate is the rate of change before any adjustments, and the inflation rate is taken from the Consumer Price Index. The real rate of return is a more accurate measure of change in value, because £1 today does not have the same buying power as £1 in the past. For example, if a savings account pays an interest rate of 3% per year and the inflation rate is 5% per year, the real rate of return is -2%. This means that the investment's value is shrinking by 2% each year.

    Historic returns for BS1 5
    BS1 5 sector BS1 district
    Nominal Real Nominal Real
    20 yr per annum 2.5% -0.2% 3.0% 0.3%
    20 yr total 63.7% -3.0% 79.6% 6.4%
    10 yr per annum 2.4% -0.4% 3.9% 1.1%
    10 yr total 27.0% -3.6% 46.4% 11.1%
    5 yr per annum 0.5% -3.4% 2.1% -1.9%
    5 yr total 2.5% -16.1% 10.9% -9.3%
    1 yr per annum -9.7% -13.3% 3.2% -0.9%
    1 yr total -9.7% -13.3% 3.2% -0.9%

    This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.

    The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:

    Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1

    The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:

    CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1

    Some specific examples:

    • Over the past 20 years, BS1 5 sector have seen a -0.2% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -3.0% in real terms.
    • Over the past 5 years, BS1 5 sector have seen a -3.4% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -16.1% in real terms.

    Most recent BS1 5 sales

    For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

    Tip: hover over dots to see details

    Street level data

    Street Avg size Avg £sqft Recent sales
    Hannover Quay, Bristol, BS1 5J 74 sqm £426 20
    Deanery Road, Bristol, BS1 5Q 80 sqm £445 20
    Unity Street, Bristol, BS1 5H 107 sqm £374 13
    Charlotte Street, Bristol, BS1 5P 72 sqm £475 12
    Park Row, Bristol, BS1 5L 62 sqm £462 10
    Millennium Promenade, Bristol, BS1 5S 59 sqm £524 9
    St David Mews, Bristol, BS1 5Q 55 sqm £419 9
    Lime Kiln Road, Bristol, BS1 5D 73 sqm £582 8

    Search for your street here.

    Nearby geographies

    The table below shows how 'BS1 5' compares to the other postcode sectors in BS1.

    Sector Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Sales in last 2yr
    BS8 4 Bristol £425 sqft £499 sqft £577 sqft 265
    BS8 2 Clifton £444 sqft £505 sqft £576 sqft 184
    BS8 1 Clifton £408 sqft £490 sqft £581 sqft 98
    BS6 5 Bristol £409 sqft £464 sqft £524 sqft 313
    BS3 4 Bristol £369 sqft £415 sqft £460 sqft 342
    BS3 1 Southville £409 sqft £458 sqft £502 sqft 317
    BS2 8 Bristol £334 sqft £415 sqft £464 sqft 115
    BS1 6 Bristol £416 sqft £482 sqft £527 sqft 149
    BS1 5 Bristol £391 sqft £425 sqft £498 sqft 111
    BS1 4 Bristol £409 sqft £464 sqft £530 sqft 27

    Raw data

    Our analysis of BS1 5 is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

    Address Paid sqft £/sqft
    Flat 47 The Panoramic, 30, Park Row, Bristol £400,000
    Oct-2024
    		 990 403
    Flat 8 St. Bartholomews Court, 18, Christmas St, Bristol £350,000
    Oct-2024
    		 667 524
    Flat 3 11, Charlotte St, Bristol £370,000
    Sep-2024
    		 742 498

    See the entire list of all sales in BS1 5 here.

    About

    I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.