House prices in BR5 2 (St Mary Cray)

This article reveals price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in St Mary Cray, Orpington (BR5 2).


Defining 'BR5 2'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "BR5 2", this is also called the postcode sector. It is shown in red on the map above. There are no official names for postcode sectors so I've just labelled it St Mary Cray.

You can click on the map labels to change to a neighbouring sector, or you can enter a different postcode sector (e.g. CM23 4) below.

FYI, a postcode sector is the full postcode without the last two letters.

Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in St Mary Cray is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area
E.g. 2, Mickleham Close, St Mary Cray, Orpington, sold for £400,000 on Mar-2024. Given the internal area of 80 square metres, the price per sqm is £5,000.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-) They may want to convert square meters on this page to square feet.

The chart below is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of this house price per sqm data. To make this chart we put the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £5,250-£5,500, £5,500-£5,750, £5,750-£6,000 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The chart is based on 242 sales in St Mary Cray (BR5 2) that took place in the last two years.

Distribution of £ per sqm for St Mary Cray, Orpington
Distribution of £ per sqm house prices in St Mary Cray

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in St Mary Cray (BR5 2). Of the 242 transactions, half were sold for between £4,520 and £5,720 per square metre. The median, or 'middle', price per square metre in 'BR5 2' is £5,040. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £5,720 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of homes.

Price map for St Mary Cray, Orpington

Do have a look at the interactive price map I created. I find it useful and I am sure it will help you in exploring Orpington. You can zoom in all the way to individual properties and then all the way back out to see the whole country. The colours show the current estimated property values.

Property price heatmap for St Mary Cray
House price heatmap for St Mary Cray, Orpington

Comparison with neighbouring postcode sectors

The table below shows how 'BR5 2' compares to neighbouring postcode sectors.

Postcode sector Lower quartile Middle quartile Upper quartile
BR5 4 St Mary Cray £4,520 sqm £5,120 sqm £5,730 sqm
BR5 1 Petts Wood £6,040 sqm £6,850 sqm £7,520 sqm
BR5 3 St Mary Cray £4,210 sqm £4,930 sqm £5,460 sqm
BR5 2 St Mary Cray £4,520 sqm £5,040 sqm £5,720 sqm

Will Orpington house prices drop in 2024?

I cannot tell the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. I can however plot price trends - I have done this in the chart below for BR5 2 (St Mary Cray) compared with both the wider area BR5 and inflation (CPIH from the Office of National Statistics). The dashed trend lines in the chart show the average over time.

Historic price per square metre in St Mary Cray,Orpington
House price trends for St Mary Cray

For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

Most recent BR5 2 sales
Recent trends for St Mary Cray

Data from Land Registry comes in gradually over time. I update it every month but it takes about 5 months for the majority of sales for Orpington to be recorded. Disclaimer: I do not verify and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any data shown. Outliers exist in the data, typically these are where the EPC registry records the internal area incorrectly, sometimes although very rarely the Land Registry price paid data can be wrong. The data provided throughout this website about Orpington and any other area, is not financial advice. Any information provided does not and cannot ever take in to account the particular financial situation, objectives or property needs of either you or anyone reading this information.

Street level data

Street Avg size Avg £sqm Recent sales
Oakdene Road, St Mary Cray, BR5 2A 68 sqm £5,480 33
St Pauls Wood Hill, St Mary Cray, BR5 2S 123 sqm £4,820 25
Hayfield Road, St Mary Cray, BR5 2D 100 sqm £5,098 22
Lockesley Drive, St Mary Cray, BR5 2A 95 sqm £5,070 19
Longbury Drive, St Mary Cray, BR5 2J 64 sqm £4,415 17
Petersham Drive, St Mary Cray, BR5 2Q 67 sqm £4,900 17
Ravensbury Road, St Mary Cray, BR5 2N 98 sqm £4,250 16
Beddington Road, St Mary Cray, BR5 2T 90 sqm £4,500 15

Search for your street here.

Raw data

Our analysis of St Mary Cray is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

Address Paid sqm £/sqm
2, Mickleham Close, St Mary Cray, Orpington £400,000
Mar-2024
80 5,000
8, Tilbury Close, St Mary Cray, Orpington £360,000
Mar-2024
95 3,789
25, Longbury Drive, St Mary Cray, Orpington £360,000
Feb-2024
81 4,444

See the entire list of all sales in St Mary Cray (BR5 2) here.

About

I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.