Feb 07, 2023 by HM

House prices in Orpington (BR5 3)

This article reveals price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in Orpington (BR5 3).

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Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in Orpington is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area

E.g. 8, St Marys Close, Orpington, sold for £290,000 on Sep-2023. Given the internal area of 57 square metres, the price per sqm is £5,087.

England & Wales have been officially metric for many decades. However house price per square foot is sometimes prefered by those of sufficiently advanced age. They may want to convert metres on this page to square feet.

The chart below is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of this house price per sqm data. To make this chart we put the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £4,250-£4,500, £4,500-£4,750, £4,750-£5,000 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The chart is based on 191 sales in Orpington (BR5 3) that took place in the last two years.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

That said, the spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in Orpington (BR5 3). Of the 191 transactions, half were sold for between £4,110 and £5,500 per square metre. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £5,500m². For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of homes.

For the average, we calculate the 'median' or middle price. The median price per square metre in 'BR5 3' is £4,930. The table below shows how 'BR5 3' compares to neighbouring postcode sectors.

Postcode sector	Lower quartile	Middle quartile	Upper quartile
BR5 1 Petts Wood	£5,940m2	£6,750m2	£7,510m2
BR5 3 Orpington	£4,110m2	£4,930m2	£5,500m2
BR5 2 Orpington	£4,480m2	£5,000m2	£5,580m2
BR5 4 Orpington	£4,540m2	£5,100m2	£5,610m2

Will Orpington house prices drop in 2024?

I cannot tell the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. I can however plot price trends - I have done this in the scatter plot below for BR5 3 (Orpington). From this one could infer a range of reasonable possible future price falls or rises. In the chart below, the red dashed line is the house price trend for BR5 3 and the blue dots are the individual property sales that inform this trend.

Disclaimer: The data provided throughout this website about Orpington and any other area, is not financial advice. Any information provided does not and cannot ever take in to account the particular financial situation, objectives or property needs of either you or anyone reading this information. Furthermore, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any data shown. This information is based on sold prices and internal area data provided by Land Registry and other third parties - I do not verify the accuracy of the Orpington data or any other data I am given.

Price map for Orpington

I've just finished coding the map I link to below. I find it useful and I am sure it will help you in exploring Orpington. You can zoom in all the way to individual properties and then all the way back out to see the whole country. The colours show the current estimated property values. I will explain more about the methodology and create a key next week.

House price heatmap for Orpington

Street level data

Street	Avg size	Avg £/m2	Recent sales
Star Lane, Orpington, BR5 3L	69m2	£4,789	26
Doveney Close, Orpington, BR5 3W	55m2	£4,769	21
Hearns Road, Orpington, BR5 3N	80m2	£4,338	17
Sevenoaks Way, Orpington, BR5 3A	95m2	£4,761	17
Ridge Place, Orpington, BR5 3F	59m2	£4,599	14
Chalk Pit Avenue, Orpington, BR5 3J	76m2	£4,807	14
Sandpiper Way, Orpington, BR5 3N	53m2	£5,227	14
Brantwood Way, Orpington, BR5 3W	54m2	£4,424	14

Search for your street here.

Raw data

Our analysis of Orpington is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

Address	Paid	m2	£/m2
8, St Marys Close, Orpington	£290,000 Sep-2023	57	5,087
94, Brantwood Way, Orpington	£322,000 Aug-2023	55	5,854
26, Sandpiper Way, Orpington	£290,000 Aug-2023	49	5,918

See the entire list of all sales in Orpington (BR5 3) here.