Feb 07, 2023 by HM

House prices in Orpington (BR5 4)

This article reveals price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in Orpington (BR5 4).

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Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in Orpington is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area

E.g. 10, Renton Drive, Orpington, sold for £365,000 on Oct-2023. Given the internal area of 49 square metres, the price per sqm is £7,448.

England & Wales have been officially metric for many decades. However house price per square foot is sometimes prefered by those of sufficiently advanced age. They may want to convert metres on this page to square feet.

The chart below is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of this house price per sqm data. To make this chart we put the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £4,700-£5,000, £5,000-£5,300, £5,300-£5,600 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The chart is based on 197 sales in Orpington (BR5 4) that took place in the last two years.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

That said, the spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in Orpington (BR5 4). Of the 197 transactions, half were sold for between £4,500 and £5,690 per square metre. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £5,690m². For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of homes.

For the average, we calculate the 'median' or middle price. The median price per square metre in 'BR5 4' is £5,110. The table below shows how 'BR5 4' compares to neighbouring postcode sectors.

Postcode sector	Lower quartile	Middle quartile	Upper quartile
BR5 1 Petts Wood	£5,850m2	£6,750m2	£7,500m2
BR5 3 Orpington	£4,060m2	£4,860m2	£5,460m2
BR5 2 Orpington	£4,500m2	£5,000m2	£5,620m2
BR5 4 Orpington	£4,500m2	£5,110m2	£5,690m2

Will Orpington house prices drop in 2024?

I cannot tell the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. I can however plot price trends - I have done this in the scatter plot below for BR5 4 (Orpington). From this one could infer a range of reasonable possible future price falls or rises. In the chart below, the red dashed line is the house price trend for BR5 4 and the blue dots are the individual property sales that inform this trend.

Disclaimer: The data provided throughout this website about Orpington and any other area, is not financial advice. Any information provided does not and cannot ever take in to account the particular financial situation, objectives or property needs of either you or anyone reading this information. Furthermore, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any data shown. This information is based on sold prices and internal area data provided by Land Registry and other third parties - I do not verify the accuracy of the Orpington data or any other data I am given.

Price map for Orpington

I've just finished coding the map I link to below. I find it useful and I am sure it will help you in exploring Orpington. You can zoom in all the way to individual properties and then all the way back out to see the whole country. The colours show the current estimated property values. I will explain more about the methodology and create a key next week.

House price heatmap for Orpington

Street level data

Street	Avg size	Avg £/m2	Recent sales
Gillmans Road, Orpington, BR5 4L	85m2	£5,292	28
Dyke Drive, Orpington, BR5 4L	61m2	£4,598	25
Bournewood Road, Orpington, BR5 4J	60m2	£4,674	19
Kynaston Road, Orpington, BR5 4J	81m2	£5,655	18
Chelsfield Lane, Orpington, BR5 4H	84m2	£5,304	14
Brow Crescent, Orpington, BR5 4L	83m2	£4,729	14
High Street, Orpington, BR5 4A	64m2	£4,672	14
Tintagel Road, Orpington, BR5 4L	88m2	£5,435	14

Search for your street here.

Raw data

Our analysis of Orpington is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

Address	Paid	m2	£/m2
10, Renton Drive, Orpington	£365,000 Oct-2023	49	7,448
6, Berens Rd, Orpington	£380,000 Sep-2023	87	4,367
39, Mosyer Drive, Orpington	£470,000 Sep-2023	73	6,438

See the entire list of all sales in Orpington (BR5 4) here.