House prices in BR5 4 (St Mary Cray)

This article reveals price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in St Mary Cray, Orpington (BR5 4).


Defining 'BR5 4'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "BR5 4", this is also called the postcode sector. It is shown in red on the map above. There are no official names for postcode sectors so I've just labelled it St Mary Cray.

You can click on the map labels to change to a neighbouring sector, or you can enter a different postcode sector (e.g. CM23 4) below.

FYI, a postcode sector is the full postcode without the last two letters.

Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in St Mary Cray is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area
E.g. 122, Chelsfield Lane, St Mary Cray, Orpington, sold for £375,000 on Mar-2024. Given the internal area of 73 square metres, the price per sqm is £5,136.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-) They may want to convert square meters on this page to square feet.

The chart below is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of this house price per sqm data. To make this chart we put the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £4,700-£5,000, £5,000-£5,300, £5,300-£5,600 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The chart is based on 195 sales in St Mary Cray (BR5 4) that took place in the last two years.

Distribution of £ per sqm for St Mary Cray, Orpington
Distribution of £ per sqm house prices in St Mary Cray

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in St Mary Cray (BR5 4). Of the 195 transactions, half were sold for between £4,520 and £5,730 per square metre. The median, or 'middle', price per square metre in 'BR5 4' is £5,120. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £5,730 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of homes.

Price map for St Mary Cray, Orpington

Do have a look at the interactive price map I created. I find it useful and I am sure it will help you in exploring Orpington. You can zoom in all the way to individual properties and then all the way back out to see the whole country. The colours show the current estimated property values.

Property price heatmap for St Mary Cray
House price heatmap for St Mary Cray, Orpington

Comparison with neighbouring postcode sectors

The table below shows how 'BR5 4' compares to neighbouring postcode sectors.

Postcode sector Lower quartile Middle quartile Upper quartile
BR5 4 St Mary Cray £4,520 sqm £5,120 sqm £5,730 sqm
BR5 1 Petts Wood £6,040 sqm £6,850 sqm £7,520 sqm
BR5 3 St Mary Cray £4,210 sqm £4,930 sqm £5,460 sqm
BR5 2 St Mary Cray £4,520 sqm £5,040 sqm £5,720 sqm

Will Orpington house prices drop in 2024?

I cannot tell the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. I can however plot price trends - I have done this in the chart below for BR5 4 (St Mary Cray) compared with both the wider area BR5 and inflation (CPIH from the Office of National Statistics). The dashed trend lines in the chart show the average over time.

Historic price per square metre in St Mary Cray,Orpington
House price trends for St Mary Cray

For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

Most recent BR5 4 sales
Recent trends for St Mary Cray

Data from Land Registry comes in gradually over time. I update it every month but it takes about 5 months for the majority of sales for Orpington to be recorded. Disclaimer: I do not verify and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any data shown. Outliers exist in the data, typically these are where the EPC registry records the internal area incorrectly, sometimes although very rarely the Land Registry price paid data can be wrong. The data provided throughout this website about Orpington and any other area, is not financial advice. Any information provided does not and cannot ever take in to account the particular financial situation, objectives or property needs of either you or anyone reading this information.

Street level data

Street Avg size Avg £sqm Recent sales
Gillmans Road, St Mary Cray, BR5 4L 84 sqm £5,375 28
Dyke Drive, St Mary Cray, BR5 4L 61 sqm £4,681 21
Bournewood Road, St Mary Cray, BR5 4J 60 sqm £4,852 18
Kynaston Road, St Mary Cray, BR5 4J 81 sqm £5,695 17
Brow Crescent, St Mary Cray, BR5 4L 83 sqm £4,747 15
Chelsfield Lane, St Mary Cray, BR5 4H 84 sqm £5,182 13
Lower Road, St Mary Cray, BR5 4A 68 sqm £5,127 13
Mungo Park Way, St Mary Cray, BR5 4E 106 sqm £4,377 13

Search for your street here.

Raw data

Our analysis of St Mary Cray is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

Address Paid sqm £/sqm
122, Chelsfield Lane, St Mary Cray, Orpington £375,000
Mar-2024
73 5,136
18, Northfield Avenue, St Mary Cray, Orpington £412,000
Mar-2024
55 7,490
12, Sanderstead Rd, St Mary Cray, Orpington £315,000
Feb-2024
58 5,431

See the entire list of all sales in St Mary Cray (BR5 4) here.

About

I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.