House prices in BR8 8 (St Mary Cray)

This article reveals price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in St Mary Cray, Swanley (BR8 8).


Defining 'BR8 8'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "BR8 8", this is also called the postcode sector. It is shown in red on the map above. There are no official names for postcode sectors so I've just labelled it St Mary Cray.

You can click on the map labels to change to a neighbouring sector, or you can enter a different postcode sector (e.g. CM23 4) below.

FYI, a postcode sector is the full postcode without the last two letters.

Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in St Mary Cray is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area
E.g. 10, Greenacre Close, St Mary Cray, Swanley, sold for £355,000 on Feb-2024. Given the internal area of 53 square metres, the price per sqm is £6,698.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-) They may want to convert square meters on this page to square feet.

The chart below is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of this house price per sqm data. To make this chart we put the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £4,700-£5,000, £5,000-£5,300, £5,300-£5,600 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The chart is based on 161 sales in St Mary Cray (BR8 8) that took place in the last two years.

Distribution of £ per sqm for St Mary Cray, Swanley
Distribution of £ per sqm house prices in St Mary Cray

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in St Mary Cray (BR8 8). Of the 161 transactions, half were sold for between £4,250 and £5,370 per square metre. The median, or 'middle', price per square metre in 'BR8 8' is £4,760. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £5,370 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of homes.

Price map for St Mary Cray, Swanley

Do have a look at the interactive price map I created. I find it useful and I am sure it will help you in exploring Swanley. You can zoom in all the way to individual properties and then all the way back out to see the whole country. The colours show the current estimated property values.

Property price heatmap for St Mary Cray
House price heatmap for St Mary Cray, Swanley

Comparison with neighbouring postcode sectors

The table below shows how 'BR8 8' compares to neighbouring postcode sectors.

Postcode sector Lower quartile Middle quartile Upper quartile
BR8 8 St Mary Cray £4,250 sqm £4,760 sqm £5,370 sqm
BR8 7 Bexley £4,140 sqm £4,660 sqm £5,410 sqm

Will Swanley house prices drop in 2024?

I cannot tell the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. I can however plot price trends - I have done this in the chart below for BR8 8 (St Mary Cray) compared with both the wider area BR8 and inflation (CPIH from the Office of National Statistics). The dashed trend lines in the chart show the average over time.

Historic price per square metre in St Mary Cray,Swanley
House price trends for St Mary Cray

For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

Most recent BR8 8 sales
Recent trends for St Mary Cray

Data from Land Registry comes in gradually over time. I update it every month but it takes about 5 months for the majority of sales for Swanley to be recorded. Disclaimer: I do not verify and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any data shown. Outliers exist in the data, typically these are where the EPC registry records the internal area incorrectly, sometimes although very rarely the Land Registry price paid data can be wrong. The data provided throughout this website about Swanley and any other area, is not financial advice. Any information provided does not and cannot ever take in to account the particular financial situation, objectives or property needs of either you or anyone reading this information.

Street level data

Street Avg size Avg £sqm Recent sales
Pinks Hill, St Mary Cray, BR8 8N 91 sqm £4,909 19
St Georges Road, St Mary Cray, BR8 8A 90 sqm £4,244 14
Glendale, St Mary Cray, BR8 8T 94 sqm £4,509 13
Cranleigh Drive, St Mary Cray, BR8 8N 91 sqm £5,015 13
Waylands, St Mary Cray, BR8 8T 96 sqm £4,796 12
West View Road, St Mary Cray, BR8 8B 98 sqm £4,582 12
Beech Avenue, St Mary Cray, BR8 8A 95 sqm £4,460 11
Pinks Hill, St Mary Cray, BR8 8A 93 sqm £4,429 10

Search for your street here.

New build activity

Street Avg size Avg £sqm New build sales
Discovery Drive, St Mary Cray, BR8 8F 69 sqm £3,948 23

Discovery Drive, St Mary Cray, BR8 8F has seen 23 new build sales in the last 4 years (average price £254,662). These new build homes typically have an internal area of 69 sqm, with an average price of £3,948 sqm. This £sqm average is £-812 below the average for BR8 8. New builds typically command a £ per sqm premium. In the case of Discovery Drive the premium seems not to exist. Without more info we can only speculate why this may be. Perhaps it may be greater density and smaller gardens, but this is just a guess.

Raw data

Our analysis of St Mary Cray is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

Address Paid sqm £/sqm
10, Greenacre Close, St Mary Cray, Swanley £355,000
Feb-2024
53 6,698
21a, Goldsel Rd, St Mary Cray, Swanley £102,562
Feb-2024
42 2,441
44, Willow Avenue, St Mary Cray, Swanley £371,000
Feb-2024
77 4,818

See the entire list of all sales in St Mary Cray (BR8 8) here.

About

I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.