House prices in 'CH5 4', Connahs Quay

This article reveals price per square foot data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in 'CH5 4' (Connahs Quay) - statistics were last calculated on 03 December 2024.

Defining 'CH5 4'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "CH5 4", this is also called the postcode sector. There are no official postcode sector names so I've just labelled it CH5 4, Connahs Quay. It is shown in red on the map below.

Want to change geography?

You can click on the map above to change to a neighbouring sector, or you can use the search form below.

Price per square foot

Knowing the average house price in CH5 4 is not much use. However, knowing average price per square foot can be quite useful. Price per sqft allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square foot as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqft = price ÷ internal area

For example in October 2024, 8, Rowan Grove, Connahs Quay, CH5 4EX sold for £150,000. Given the internal area of 839 square feet recorded on the EPC, the price per sqft is £150,000 ÷ 839 sqft = £178.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-). It is a huge pain to code the automatic conversion for square meters to square feet for all the graphs and charts on CH5 4 and elsewhere. All the conditionals turn my tidy code for into spaghetti. I will get around to it at some point, but for now you can just divide everything by 10 in your head, move a decimal place and you'll be close enough. If you want to be more precise 1 sqm = 10.76391 sqft.

Distribution of £ per sqft for 'CH5 4' vs 'CH5'

The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqft in CH5 4 To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqft 'buckets' (e.g. £176 to £185, £185 to £195, £195 to £204 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 307 sales that took place in CH5 4, Connahs Quay in the last 24 months.

Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in CH5 4, Connahs Quay. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £242 sqft. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of CH5 4 homes.

Box plot of £ per sqft for CH5 4

Tip: click on the chart to see the values.

The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square foot property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Connahs Quay. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'CH5 4' as well as the 'CH5' postcode district.

  • Median: The horizontal line inside the box represents the median (£ per square meter). This is the midpoint of the data, meaning 50% of the prices are below this value, and 50% are above. The middle price per square foot in 'CH5 4' is £207.
  • Interquartile Range (IQR): The box spans from the 25th percentile (Q1) to the 75th percentile (Q3). This is the range where the middle 50% of the data lies, giving a good indication of the typical price spread. Of the 307 transactions in CH5 4, Connahs Quay half were sold for between £167 and £242 per square foot.
  • Whiskers: In our case, the whiskers extend from the 9th percentile (at the lower end) to the 91st percentile (at the upper end), This provides a slightly broader view of the distribution by including the middle 82% of records. The whiskers capture most of the variation but exclude extreme outliers caused by data errors in recording sold house prices or internal area.
  • 'n=' is the number of property transactions the box plot is based on; 307 for CH5 4, Connahs Quay.

    • Property price map for Connahs Quay

    Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore 'CH5 4' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.

    Property price heatmap for Connahs Quay
    House price map for Connahs Quay

    Connahs Quay house price forecasting

    I cannot tell what house prices will do in the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for CH5 4 (Connahs Quay) compared with the wider postcode district of CH5. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.

    House price index for CH5 4

    Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines

    Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).

    The chart above shows changes in 'CH5 4' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqft for property in CH5 4 and is set to 100 in 2004. I'm comparing the trends for CH5 4,Connahs Quay with the wider postcode district of CH5 What is more interesting is to look at the difference between flats and houses, even those in the same area follow a very different trend, to get a robust enough sample size to see this we need to zoom out and look at house price trends for the entire Flintshire local authority.

    The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:

    Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1
    In this formula, the nominal rate is the rate of change before any adjustments, and the inflation rate is taken from the Consumer Price Index. The real rate of return is a more accurate measure of change in value, because £1 today does not have the same buying power as £1 in the past. For example, if a savings account pays an interest rate of 3% per year and the inflation rate is 5% per year, the real rate of return is -2%. This means that the investment's value is shrinking by 2% each year.

    Historic returns for CH5 4
    CH5 4 sector CH5 district
    Nominal Real Nominal Real
    20 yr per annum 2.3% -0.4% 2.6% -0.1%
    20 yr total 57.1% -7.0% 66.5% -1.4%
    10 yr per annum 3.1% 0.3% 3.3% 0.5%
    10 yr total 36.2% 3.4% 38.4% 5.1%
    5 yr per annum 3.2% -0.8% 3.5% -0.6%
    5 yr total 17.1% -4.2% 18.6% -3.0%
    1 yr per annum -9.0% -12.6% -1.9% -5.8%
    1 yr total -9.0% -12.6% -1.9% -5.8%

    This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.

    The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:

    Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1

    The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:

    CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1

    Some specific examples:

    • Over the past 20 years, CH5 district have seen a -0.1% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -1.4% in real terms.
    • Over the past 5 years, CH5 district have seen a -0.6% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -3.0% in real terms.

    Most recent CH5 4 sales

    For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

    Tip: hover over dots to see details

    Street level data

    Street Avg size Avg £sqft Recent sales
    Uplands Avenue, Connahs Quay, CH5 4L 70 sqm £214 25
    Richmond Road, Connahs Quay, CH5 4J 83 sqm £187 19
    High Street, Connahs Quay, CH5 4D 79 sqm £129 18
    Wepre Lane, Connahs Quay, CH5 4J 95 sqm £237 17
    Wepre Park, Connahs Quay, CH5 4H 111 sqm £224 16
    Mold Road, Connahs Quay, CH5 4Q 107 sqm £170 16
    Hillsdown Drive, Connahs Quay, CH5 4G 103 sqm £223 14
    Cestrian Street, Connahs Quay, CH5 4E 75 sqm £133 14

    Search for your street here.

    Nearby geographies

    The table below shows how 'CH5 4' compares to the other postcode sectors in CH5.

    Sector Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Sales in last 2yr
    CH7 6 Mynydd Isa £217 sqft £248 sqft £287 sqft 205
    CH6 5 Flint £157 sqft £207 sqft £239 sqft 251
    CH64 5 Burton £326 sqft £340 sqft £424 sqft 17
    CH64 0 Little Neston £243 sqft £274 sqft £310 sqft 46
    CH5 4 Connahs Quay £167 sqft £207 sqft £242 sqft 307
    CH5 3 Hawarden £218 sqft £256 sqft £288 sqft 232
    CH5 2 Mancot £166 sqft £202 sqft £232 sqft 112
    CH5 1 Shotton £127 sqft £160 sqft £194 sqft 171

    Raw data

    Our analysis of CH5 4 is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

    Address Paid sqft £/sqft
    8, Rowan Grove, Connahs Quay £150,000
    Oct-2024
    		 839 178
    12, Stone Row, Connahs Quay £60,000
    Oct-2024
    		 602 99
    14, Florita Close, Connahs Quay £160,000
    Oct-2024
    		 785 203

    See the entire list of all sales in CH5 4 here.

    About

    I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.