House prices in 'DA15 9', Sidcup

This article reveals price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in 'DA15 9' (Sidcup) - statistics were last calculated on 03 December 2024.

Defining 'DA15 9'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "DA15 9", this is also called the postcode sector. There are no official postcode sector names so I've just labelled it DA15 9, Sidcup. It is shown in red on the map below.

Want to change geography?

You can click on the map above to change to a neighbouring sector, or you can use the search form below.

Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in DA15 9 is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area

For example in October 2024, 20, Maple Crescent, Sidcup, DA15 9LT sold for £450,000. Given the internal area of 63 square metres recorded on the EPC, the price per sqm is £450,000 ÷ 63 sqm = £7,142.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-). It is a huge pain to code the automatic conversion for square meters to square feet for all the graphs and charts on DA15 9 and elsewhere. All the conditionals turn my tidy code for into spaghetti. I will get around to it at some point, but for now you can just divide everything by 10 in your head, move a decimal place and you'll be close enough. If you want to be more precise 1 sqm = 10.76391 sqft.

Distribution of £ per sqm for 'DA15 9' vs 'DA15'

The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqm in DA15 9 To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £5,250 to £5,500, £5,500 to £5,750, £5,750 to £6,000 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 167 sales that took place in DA15 9, Sidcup in the last 24 months.

Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in DA15 9, Sidcup. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £6,370 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of DA15 9 homes.

Box plot of £ per sqm for DA15 9

Tip: click on the chart to see the values.

The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square metre property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Sidcup. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'DA15 9' as well as the 'DA15' postcode district.

  • Median: The horizontal line inside the box represents the median (£ per square meter). This is the midpoint of the data, meaning 50% of the prices are below this value, and 50% are above. The middle price per square metre in 'DA15 9' is £5,770.
  • Interquartile Range (IQR): The box spans from the 25th percentile (Q1) to the 75th percentile (Q3). This is the range where the middle 50% of the data lies, giving a good indication of the typical price spread. Of the 167 transactions in DA15 9, Sidcup half were sold for between £4,960 and £6,370 per square metre.
  • Whiskers: In our case, the whiskers extend from the 9th percentile (at the lower end) to the 91st percentile (at the upper end), This provides a slightly broader view of the distribution by including the middle 82% of records. The whiskers capture most of the variation but exclude extreme outliers caused by data errors in recording sold house prices or internal area.
  • 'n=' is the number of property transactions the box plot is based on; 167 for DA15 9, Sidcup.

    • Property price map for Sidcup

    Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore 'DA15 9' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.

    Property price heatmap for Sidcup
    House price map for Sidcup

    Sidcup house price forecasting

    I cannot tell what house prices will do in the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for DA15 9 (Sidcup) compared with the wider postcode district of DA15. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.

    House price index for DA15 9

    Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines

    Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).

    The chart above shows changes in 'DA15 9' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqm for property in DA15 9 and is set to 100 in 2004. I'm comparing the trends for DA15 9,Sidcup with the wider postcode district of DA15 What is more interesting is to look at the difference between flats and houses, even those in the same area follow a very different trend, to get a robust enough sample size to see this we need to zoom out and look at house price trends for the entire Bexley local authority.

    The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:

    Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1
    In this formula, the nominal rate is the rate of change before any adjustments, and the inflation rate is taken from the Consumer Price Index. The real rate of return is a more accurate measure of change in value, because £1 today does not have the same buying power as £1 in the past. For example, if a savings account pays an interest rate of 3% per year and the inflation rate is 5% per year, the real rate of return is -2%. This means that the investment's value is shrinking by 2% each year.

    Historic returns for DA15 9
    DA15 9 sector DA15 district
    Nominal Real Nominal Real
    20 yr per annum 4.1% 1.4% 3.9% 1.2%
    20 yr total 121.4% 31.2% 115.7% 27.7%
    10 yr per annum 4.2% 1.4% 4.3% 1.5%
    10 yr total 51.0% 14.6% 52.9% 16.1%
    5 yr per annum 3.4% -0.6% 3.1% -1.0%
    5 yr total 18.4% -3.1% 16.5% -4.7%
    1 yr per annum -1.8% -5.7% 0.3% -3.7%
    1 yr total -1.8% -5.7% 0.3% -3.7%

    This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.

    The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:

    Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1

    The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:

    CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1

    Some specific examples:

    • Over the past 20 years, DA15 district have seen a 1.2% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of 27.7% in real terms.
    • Over the past 5 years, DA15 district have seen a -1.0% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -4.7% in real terms.

    Most recent DA15 9 sales

    For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

    Tip: hover over dots to see details

    Street level data

    Street Avg size Avg £sqm Recent sales
    Harcourt Avenue, Sidcup, DA15 9L 69 sqm £5,874 37
    Sherwood Park Avenue, Sidcup, DA15 9J 66 sqm £6,372 30
    Ramillies Road, Sidcup, DA15 9J 68 sqm £5,819 29
    Rowley Avenue, Sidcup, DA15 9L 76 sqm £5,611 26
    Hurst Road, Sidcup, DA15 9A 119 sqm £5,271 24
    Burns Avenue, Sidcup, DA15 9H 71 sqm £5,927 24
    Wellington Avenue, Sidcup, DA15 9H 88 sqm £5,219 18
    Westerham Drive, Sidcup, DA15 9N 66 sqm £5,064 18

    Search for your street here.

    Nearby geographies

    The table below shows how 'DA15 9' compares to the other postcode sectors in DA15.

    Sector Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Sales in last 2yr
    DA6 8 Bexleyheath £4,510 sqm £5,080 sqm £5,810 sqm 130
    DA5 3 Albany Park £4,970 sqm £5,540 sqm £6,450 sqm 175
    DA5 1 Bexley £4,600 sqm £5,190 sqm £5,820 sqm 152
    DA16 2 Welling £4,710 sqm £5,270 sqm £5,800 sqm 249
    DA16 1 Bexleyheath £4,560 sqm £5,200 sqm £5,810 sqm 229
    DA15 9 Sidcup £4,960 sqm £5,770 sqm £6,370 sqm 167
    DA15 8 Sidcup £5,150 sqm £5,750 sqm £6,370 sqm 311
    DA15 7 Sidcup £4,310 sqm £4,940 sqm £5,850 sqm 134
    DA14 4 Sidcup £4,700 sqm £5,240 sqm £5,910 sqm 278

    Raw data

    Our analysis of DA15 9 is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

    Address Paid sqm £/sqm
    20, Maple Crescent, Sidcup £450,000
    Oct-2024
    		 63 7,142
    21, Greenwood Close, Sidcup £262,500
    Oct-2024
    		 77 3,409
    64, Ramillies Rd, Sidcup £385,000
    Sep-2024
    		 52 7,403

    See the entire list of all sales in DA15 9 here.

    About

    I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.