House prices in 'W1U 8', Marble Arch

This article reveals price per square foot data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in 'W1U 8' (Marble Arch, London) - statistics were last calculated on 01 November 2024.

Defining 'W1U 8'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "W1U 8", this is also called the postcode sector. There are no official postcode sector names so I've just labelled it W1U 8, Marble Arch. It is shown in red on the map below.

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You can click on the map above to change to a neighbouring sector, or you can use the search form below.

Price per square foot

Knowing the average house price in W1U 8 is not much use. However, knowing average price per square foot can be quite useful. Price per sqft allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square foot as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqft = price ÷ internal area

For example in April 2024, 12, Gloucester Place Mews, Marble Arch, W1U 8BA sold for £950,000. Given the internal area of 645 square feet recorded on the EPC, the price per sqft is £950,000 ÷ 645 sqft = £1,470.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-). It is a huge pain to code the automatic conversion for square meters to square feet for all the graphs and charts on W1U 8 and elsewhere. All the conditionals turn my tidy code for into spaghetti. I will get around to it at some point, but for now you can just divide everything by 10 in your head, move a decimal place and you'll be close enough. If you want to be more precise 1 sqm = 10.76391 sqft.

Distribution of £ per sqft for 'W1U 8' vs 'W1U'

The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqft in W1U 8 To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqft 'buckets' (e.g. etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 7 sales that took place in W1U 8, Marble Arch, London in the last 24 months.

Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in W1U 8, Marble Arch. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £2,229 sqft. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of W1U 8 homes.

Box plot of £ per sqft for W1U 8

Tip: click on the chart to see the values.

The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square foot property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Marble Arch. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'W1U 8' as well as the 'W1U' postcode district.

  • Median: The horizontal line inside the box represents the median (£ per square meter). This is the midpoint of the data, meaning 50% of the prices are below this value, and 50% are above. The middle price per square foot in 'W1U 8' is £2,141.
  • Interquartile Range (IQR): The box spans from the 25th percentile (Q1) to the 75th percentile (Q3). This is the range where the middle 50% of the data lies, giving a good indication of the typical price spread. Of the 7 transactions in W1U 8, Marble Arch half were sold for between £1,675 and £2,229 per square foot.
  • Whiskers: In our case, the whiskers extend from the 9th percentile (at the lower end) to the 91st percentile (at the upper end), This provides a slightly broader view of the distribution by including the middle 82% of records. The whiskers capture most of the variation but exclude extreme outliers caused by data errors in recording sold house prices or internal area.
  • 'n=' is the number of property transactions the box plot is based on; 7 for W1U 8, Marble Arch.

    • Property price map for Marble Arch

    Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore 'W1U 8' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.

    Property price heatmap for Marble Arch
    House price map for Marble Arch

    Marble Arch house price forecasting

    I cannot tell what house prices will do in the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for W1U 8 (Marble Arch) compared with the wider postcode district of W1U. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.

    House price index for W1U 8

    Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines

    Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).

    The chart above shows changes in 'W1U 8' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqft for property in W1U 8 and is set to 100 in 2004. I'm comparing the trends for W1U 8,Marble Arch with the wider postcode district of W1U What is more interesting is to look at the difference between flats and houses, even those in the same area follow a very different trend, to get a robust enough sample size to see this we need to zoom out and look at house price trends for the entire Westminster local authority.

    The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:

    Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1
    In this formula, the nominal rate is the rate of change before any adjustments, and the inflation rate is taken from the Consumer Price Index. The real rate of return is a more accurate measure of change in value, because £1 today does not have the same buying power as £1 in the past. For example, if a savings account pays an interest rate of 3% per year and the inflation rate is 5% per year, the real rate of return is -2%. This means that the investment's value is shrinking by 2% each year.

    Historic returns for W1U 8
    W1U district
    Nominal Real
    20 yr per annum 5.1% 2.4%
    20 yr total 170.8% 60.4%
    10 yr per annum -0.4% -3.1%
    10 yr total -4.3% -27.4%
    5 yr per annum -1.5% -5.4%
    5 yr total -7.3% -24.1%
    1 yr per annum -8.2% -11.9%
    1 yr total -8.2% -11.9%

    This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.

    The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:

    Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1

    The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:

    CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1

    Some specific examples:

    • Over the past 20 years, W1U district have seen a 2.4% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of 60.4% in real terms.
    • Over the past 5 years, W1U district have seen a -5.4% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -24.1% in real terms.

    Most recent W1U 8 sales

    For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

    Tip: hover over dots to see details

    Street level data

    Nearby geographies

    The table below shows how 'W1U 8' compares to the other postcode sectors in W1U.

    Sector Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Sales in last 2yr
    W2 2 Edgware Road £883 sqft £1,073 sqft £1,351 sqft 148
    W1U 8 Marble Arch £1,675 sqft £2,141 sqft £2,229 sqft 7
    W1U 7 Baker Street £1,038 sqft £1,581 sqft £1,981 sqft 6
    W1U 6 Baker Street £1,206 sqft £1,459 sqft £1,656 sqft 36
    W1U 5 Baker Street £1,144 sqft £1,274 sqft £1,358 sqft 33
    W1U 4 Baker Street £1,483 sqft £1,728 sqft £2,072 sqft 26
    W1U 3 Bond Street £1,280 sqft £1,375 sqft £1,774 sqft 10
    W1U 2 Bond Street £1,343 sqft £1,482 sqft £1,587 sqft 6
    W1U 1 Bond Street £1,342 sqft £1,660 sqft £1,858 sqft 9
    W1K 7 Marble Arch £1,811 sqft £1,921 sqft £2,379 sqft 26

    Raw data

    Our analysis of W1U 8 is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

    Address Paid sqft £/sqft
    12, Gloucester Pl Mews, Marble Arch, London £950,000
    Apr-2024
    		 645 1,470
    6, Gloucester Pl Mews, Marble Arch, London £1,050,000
    Jan-2024
    		 376 2,787
    21, Gloucester Pl Mews, Marble Arch, London £1,330,000
    Dec-2023
    		 645 2,059

    See the entire list of all sales in W1U 8 here.

    About

    I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.