House prices in GL4 (Abbeymead)

This article shows price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand the housing market in GL4 - stats were last calculated on 01 November 2024.

Defining 'GL4'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "GL4", this is also called the postcode district. There are no official postcode district names so I've just labelled it GL4, Abbeymead. It is shown in red on the map below.

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Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in GL4 is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area

For example in September 2024, 5, Boughton Way, Abbeymead, GL4 4PG sold for £225,000. Given the internal area of 57 square metres recorded on the EPC, the price per sqm is £225,000 ÷ 57 sqm = £3,947.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-). It is a huge pain to code the automatic conversion for square meters to square feet for all the graphs and charts on GL4 and elsewhere. All the conditionals turn my tidy code for into spaghetti. I will get around to it at some point, but for now you can just divide everything by 10 in your head, move a decimal place and you'll be close enough. If you want to be more precise 1 sqm = 10.76391 sqft.

Distribution of £ per sqm for houses vs flats in GL4

The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqm in GL4 To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £3,350 to £3,500, £3,500 to £3,650, £3,650 to £3,800 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 1,037 sales that took place in GL4, in the last 24 months.

Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in GL4, Abbeymead. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £3,760 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of GL4 homes.

Box plot of £ per sqm for GL4

Tip: click on the chart to see the values.

The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square metre property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Abbeymead. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'GL4' as well as the 'GL' postcode area.

  • Median: The horizontal line inside the box represents the median (£ per square meter). This is the midpoint of the data, meaning 50% of the prices are below this value, and 50% are above. The middle price per square metre in 'GL4' is £3,260.
  • Interquartile Range (IQR): The box spans from the 25th percentile (Q1) to the 75th percentile (Q3). This is the range where the middle 50% of the data lies, giving a good indication of the typical price spread. Of the 1,037 transactions in GL4, Abbeymead half were sold for between £2,780 and £3,760 per square metre.
  • Whiskers: In our case, the whiskers extend from the 9th percentile (at the lower end) to the 91st percentile (at the upper end), This provides a slightly broader view of the distribution by including the middle 82% of records. The whiskers capture most of the variation but exclude extreme outliers caused by data errors in recording sold house prices or internal area.
  • 'n=' is the number of property transactions the box plot is based on; 1,037 for GL4, Abbeymead.

    • Property price map for Abbeymead

    Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore 'GL4' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.

    Property price heatmap for Abbeymead
    House price map for Abbeymead

    Will GL4 house prices drop in 2025?

    I cannot tell what house prices will do in the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for GL4 (Abbeymead) compared with the wider postcode area 'GL'. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.

    House price index for GL4

    Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines

    Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).

    The chart above shows changes in 'GL4' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqm for property in GL4 and is set to 100 in 2004. The chart compares trends for GL4, Abbeymead against those of the broader postcode area 'GL'. What is more interesting is to look at the difference between flats and houses, even those in the same area follow a very different trend, to get a robust enough sample size to see this we need to zoom out and look at house price trends for the entire Gloucester local authority.

    The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:

    Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1
    In this formula, the nominal rate is the rate of change before any adjustments, and the inflation rate is taken from the Consumer Price Index. The real rate of return is a more accurate measure of change in value, because £1 today does not have the same buying power as £1 in the past. For example, if a savings account pays an interest rate of 3% per year and the inflation rate is 5% per year, the real rate of return is -2%. This means that the investment's value is shrinking by 2% each year.

    Historic returns for GL4
    GL area GL4 district
    Nominal Real Nominal Real
    20 yr per annum 3.1% 0.4% 3.1% 0.4%
    20 yr total 84.5% 9.3% 82.8% 8.3%
    10 yr per annum 4.1% 1.3% 4.5% 1.6%
    10 yr total 49.9% 13.8% 54.7% 17.4%
    5 yr per annum 4.1% 0.1% 4.1% 0.0%
    5 yr total 22.5% 0.3% 22.3% 0.1%
    1 yr per annum -0.5% -4.5% -0.1% -4.1%
    1 yr total -0.5% -4.5% -0.1% -4.1%

    This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.

    The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:

    Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1

    The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:

    CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1

    Some specific examples:

    • Over the past 20 years, GL4 district have seen a 0.4% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of 8.3% in real terms.
    • Over the past 5 years, GL area have seen a 0.1% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of 0.3% in real terms.

    Most recent GL4 sales

    For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

    Tip: hover over dots to see details

    Street level data

    Street Avg size Avg £sqm Recent sales
    Watermint Drive, , GL4 0S 67 sqm £2,569 24
    Curlew Road, , GL4 4T 78 sqm £2,920 23
    Bodenham Field, , GL4 5T 89 sqm £3,100 21
    Bodiam Avenue, , GL4 0T 77 sqm £3,225 21
    Eastern Avenue, , GL4 3D 51 sqm £3,136 19
    Grange Road, , GL4 0P 96 sqm £3,021 19
    Finlay Road, , GL4 6T 90 sqm £2,915 18
    Stonechat Avenue, , GL4 4X 86 sqm £3,033 17

    Search for your street here.

    Nearby geographies

    The table below shows how 'GL4' compares to the other postcode districts nearby 'GL4'.

    District Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Sales in last 2yr
    GL9 Hawkesbury Upton £3,930 sqm £4,970 sqm £5,210 sqm 40
    GL8 Tetbury £3,670 sqm £4,440 sqm £5,020 sqm 303
    GL7 Cirencester £3,660 sqm £4,280 sqm £5,010 sqm 1,157
    GL6 Nailsworth £3,720 sqm £4,460 sqm £5,200 sqm 573
    GL56 Blockley £3,790 sqm £4,550 sqm £5,410 sqm 305
    GL55 Mickleton £4,060 sqm £4,730 sqm £5,950 sqm 175
    GL54 Winchcombe £3,790 sqm £4,410 sqm £5,440 sqm 665
    GL53 Charlton Kings £4,280 sqm £4,930 sqm £5,540 sqm 565
    GL52 Bishops Cleeve £3,440 sqm £4,010 sqm £4,530 sqm 1,473
    GL51 Cheltenham £3,110 sqm £3,690 sqm £4,350 sqm 1,203

    Raw data

    Our analysis of GL4 is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

    Address Paid sqm £/sqm
    5, Boughton Way, £225,000
    Sep-2024
    		 57 3,947
    6, Marlstone Close, £248,000
    Sep-2024
    		 78 3,179
    28, Carwardine Field, £350,000
    Sep-2024
    		 86 4,069

    See the entire list of all sales in GL4 here.

    About

    I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.