House prices in TN23 (Ashford)

This article shows price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand the housing market in TN23 - stats were last calculated on 01 November 2024.

Defining 'TN23'

This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "TN23", this is also called the postcode district. There are no official postcode district names so I've just labelled it TN23, Ashford. It is shown in red on the map below.

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Price per square metre

Knowing the average house price in TN23 is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:

£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area

For example in September 2024, 21, The Limes, Ashford, TN23 3NX sold for £150,000. Given the internal area of 67 square metres recorded on the EPC, the price per sqm is £150,000 ÷ 67 sqm = £2,238.

England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-). It is a huge pain to code the automatic conversion for square meters to square feet for all the graphs and charts on TN23 and elsewhere. All the conditionals turn my tidy code for into spaghetti. I will get around to it at some point, but for now you can just divide everything by 10 in your head, move a decimal place and you'll be close enough. If you want to be more precise 1 sqm = 10.76391 sqft.

Distribution of £ per sqm for houses vs flats in TN23

The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqm in TN23 To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £3,350 to £3,500, £3,500 to £3,650, £3,650 to £3,800 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 1,073 sales that took place in TN23, in the last 24 months.

Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in TN23, Ashford. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £4,190 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of TN23 homes.

Box plot of £ per sqm for TN23

Tip: click on the chart to see the values.

The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square metre property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Ashford. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'TN23' as well as the 'TN' postcode area.

  • Median: The horizontal line inside the box represents the median (£ per square meter). This is the midpoint of the data, meaning 50% of the prices are below this value, and 50% are above. The middle price per square metre in 'TN23' is £3,650.
  • Interquartile Range (IQR): The box spans from the 25th percentile (Q1) to the 75th percentile (Q3). This is the range where the middle 50% of the data lies, giving a good indication of the typical price spread. Of the 1,073 transactions in TN23, Ashford half were sold for between £3,120 and £4,190 per square metre.
  • Whiskers: In our case, the whiskers extend from the 9th percentile (at the lower end) to the 91st percentile (at the upper end), This provides a slightly broader view of the distribution by including the middle 82% of records. The whiskers capture most of the variation but exclude extreme outliers caused by data errors in recording sold house prices or internal area.
  • 'n=' is the number of property transactions the box plot is based on; 1,073 for TN23, Ashford.

    • Property price map for Ashford

    Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore 'TN23' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.

    Property price heatmap for Ashford
    House price map for Ashford

    Will TN23 house prices drop in 2025?

    I cannot tell what house prices will do in the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for TN23 (Ashford) compared with the wider postcode area 'TN'. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.

    House price index for TN23

    Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines

    Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).

    The chart above shows changes in 'TN23' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqm for property in TN23 and is set to 100 in 2004. The chart compares trends for TN23, Ashford against those of the broader postcode area 'TN'. What is more interesting is to look at the difference between flats and houses, even those in the same area follow a very different trend, to get a robust enough sample size to see this we need to zoom out and look at house price trends for the entire Ashford local authority.

    The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:

    Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1
    In this formula, the nominal rate is the rate of change before any adjustments, and the inflation rate is taken from the Consumer Price Index. The real rate of return is a more accurate measure of change in value, because £1 today does not have the same buying power as £1 in the past. For example, if a savings account pays an interest rate of 3% per year and the inflation rate is 5% per year, the real rate of return is -2%. This means that the investment's value is shrinking by 2% each year.

    Historic returns for TN23
    TN area TN23 district
    Nominal Real Nominal Real
    20 yr per annum 3.5% 0.8% 3.3% 0.6%
    20 yr total 98.9% 17.8% 90.6% 12.9%
    10 yr per annum 3.9% 1.1% 4.1% 1.3%
    10 yr total 46.8% 11.4% 49.6% 13.6%
    5 yr per annum 3.2% -0.9% 3.5% -0.6%
    5 yr total 17.0% -4.3% 18.5% -3.0%
    1 yr per annum -1.0% -5.0% -1.2% -5.2%
    1 yr total -1.0% -5.0% -1.2% -5.2%

    This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.

    The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:

    Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1

    The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:

    CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1

    Some specific examples:

    • Over the past 20 years, TN23 district have seen a 0.6% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of 12.9% in real terms.
    • Over the past 5 years, TN area have seen a -0.9% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -4.3% in real terms.

    Most recent TN23 sales

    For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.

    Tip: hover over dots to see details

    Street level data

    Street Avg size Avg £sqm Recent sales
    Lakemead, , TN23 4X 58 sqm £4,439 27
    Bryony Drive, , TN23 3R 84 sqm £3,361 26
    Bluebell Road, , TN23 3G 102 sqm £2,898 26
    Beaver Road, , TN23 7S 83 sqm £2,754 25
    Manorfield, , TN23 5Y 50 sqm £4,206 23
    Wood Lane, , TN23 3A 77 sqm £4,013 21
    Loudon Way, , TN23 3N 54 sqm £2,470 21
    Sir Henry Brackenbury Road, , TN23 3F 79 sqm £3,010 21

    Search for your street here.

    Nearby geographies

    The table below shows how 'TN23' compares to the other postcode districts nearby 'TN23'.

    District Lower quartile Median Upper quartile Sales in last 2yr
    TN9 Tonbridge £4,190 sqm £4,870 sqm £5,540 sqm 485
    TN8 Edenbridge £4,030 sqm £4,830 sqm £5,710 sqm 290
    TN7 Upper Hartfield £4,300 sqm £4,990 sqm £6,240 sqm 38
    TN6 Crowborough £3,830 sqm £4,400 sqm £4,950 sqm 647
    TN5 Ticehurst £4,190 sqm £4,820 sqm £5,440 sqm 198
    TN40 Bexhill-On-Sea £2,800 sqm £3,410 sqm £4,080 sqm 696
    TN4 Tunbridge Wells £4,240 sqm £5,000 sqm £5,680 sqm 770
    TN39 Bexhill-On-Sea £3,040 sqm £3,740 sqm £4,360 sqm 805
    TN38 St Leonards-On-Sea £2,870 sqm £3,480 sqm £4,160 sqm 757
    TN37 St Leonards-On-Sea £2,750 sqm £3,410 sqm £4,030 sqm 579

    Raw data

    Our analysis of TN23 is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

    Address Paid sqm £/sqm
    21, The Limes, £150,000
    Sep-2024
    		 67 2,238
    62, Acorn Close, £400,000
    Sep-2024
    		 117 3,418
    145, Wood Lane, £290,000
    Sep-2024
    		 69 4,202

    See the entire list of all sales in TN23 here.

    About

    I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.