House prices in Caerphilly

Defining 'Caerphilly'

This boundary is taken directly from the Office of National Statistics area called Caerphilly. It is shown in red on the map below.

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Distribution of £ per sqm for houses vs flats in Caerphilly

Tip: click on the legend labels to show/hide different property types.

The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqm in Caerphilly To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £2,350 to £2,500, £2,500 to £2,650, £2,650 to £2,800 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 1,369 sales that took place in Caerphilly in the last 12 months.

Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.

You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.

The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in Caerphilly. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £2,750 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of Caerphilly homes.

Box plot of £ per sqm for Caerphilly

Tip: click on the chart to see the values.

The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square metre property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Caerphilly. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'Caerphilly' broken down by property type (Flats, Semi-detached, Detached and Terraced). Almost everywhere houses command higher prices per square metre than flats, and detached houses most of all.

Property price map for Caerphilly

Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore postcode area 'Caerphilly' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.

House price map for Caerphilly

Will Caerphilly house price go up in 2025?

I cannot tell the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for houses and flats in Caerphilly. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.

House price index for Caerphilly

Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines

Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).

The chart above shows changes in 'Caerphilly' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqm for property in Caerphilly and is set to 100 in 2004. The chart compares trends for Flats vs Houses in Caerphilly. You can see how different they are. Keep this in mind when you see any price index that doesn't provide this breakdown.

The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:

Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1

Historic returns for Caerphilly

This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.

The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:

Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1

The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:

CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1

Some specific examples:

• Over the past 20 years, Flats have seen a 0.2% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of 4.0% in real terms.
• Over the past 5 years, Flats have seen a 1.6% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of 8.4% in real terms.

Transaction volumes

Property transaction volumes in the UK follow a cyclical pattern. In addition to seasonal trends that occur annually, transaction volumes fluctuate with changes in house prices. When prices are rising, transactions typically increase, whereas falling prices tend to result in fewer sales, with only motivated sellers (e.g., due to death or divorce) entering the market. Exceptions to this trend often occur when changes to Stamp Duty drive a temporary surge in transactions.

Number of properties sold in Caerphilly

The chart above shows the number of properties sold each month in Caerphilly as reported by Land Registry. Key events highlighted include the Northern Rock bank run at the start of the 2007/8 Financial Crisis, the introduction of additional Stamp Duty on second homes in April 2016, the COVID-19 lockdowns and subsequent Stamp Duty holiday, and the 2023 interest rate rises. It's important to note that Land Registry reporting is lagged, particularly affecting new build sales, so treat the last year of sales volume data with caution. Based on historical reporting lags, I've provided a crude forecast of sales volumes for Caerphilly, shown in yellow.

Nearby geographies

The table below shows how 'Caerphilly' compares to the other Local Authorities nearby 'Caerphilly'.

Raw data

Our analysis of Caerphilly is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.

Search the entire list of all sales here.