House prices in 'CM77 8', Black Notley
This article reveals price per square metre data and various charts to help you understand current housing market in 'CM77 8' (Black Notley, Great Notley) - statistics were last calculated on 03 December 2024.
Defining 'CM77 8'
This analysis is limited to properties whose postcode starts with "CM77 8", this is also called the postcode sector. There are no official postcode sector names so I've just labelled it CM77 8, Black Notley. It is shown in red on the map below.
Want to change geography?
You can click on the map above to change to a neighbouring sector, or you can use the search form below.
Price per square metre
Knowing the average house price in CM77 8 is not much use. However, knowing average price per square metre can be quite useful. Price per sqm allows some comparison between properties of different size. We define price per square metre as the sold price divided by the internal area of a property:
£ per sqm = price ÷ internal area
For example in October 2024, 64, Bedells Avenue, Black Notley, CM77 8NA sold for £339,000. Given the internal area of 98 square metres recorded on the EPC, the price per sqm is £339,000 ÷ 98 sqm = £3,459.
England & Wales have been officially metric since 1965. However house price per square foot is prefered by some estate agents and those of sufficiently advanced age ;-). It is a huge pain to code the automatic conversion for square meters to square feet for all the graphs and charts on CM77 8 and elsewhere. All the conditionals turn my tidy code for into spaghetti. I will get around to it at some point, but for now you can just divide everything by 10 in your head, move a decimal place and you'll be close enough. If you want to be more precise 1 sqm = 10.76391 sqft.
Distribution of £ per sqm for 'CM77 8' vs 'CM77'
The chart above is called a histogram, it helps you see the distribution of house price per sqm in CM77 8 To make this chart we put all the sales data into a series of £ per sqm 'buckets' (e.g. £4,350 to £4,500, £4,500 to £4,650, £4,650 to £4,800 etc...) we then count the number of sales with within in each bucket and plot the results. The histogram is based on 127 sales that took place in CM77 8, Black Notley, Great Notley in the last 24 months.
Generate a custom histogram like the one above but based on your own criteria.
You can see the spread of prices above. This is because although internal area is a key factor in determining valuation, it is not the only factor. Many factors other than size affect desirability; these factors could be condition, aspect, garden size, negotiating power of the vendor etc.
The spread of prices will give you a feel of the typical range to expect in CM77 8, Black Notley. Notably, only 25% of properties that sold recently were valued at more than £4,430 sqm. For anything to be valued more than this means it has to be more desireable than the clear majority of CM77 8 homes.
Box plot of £ per sqm for CM77 8
Tip: click on the chart to see the values.
The chart above is called a boxplot (or a box-and-whisker plot). Box plots, like histograms, are used to graphically represent the distribution of data, showing the central tendency, spread of the distribution. In the context of £ per square metre property price distributions, box plots represent the variation in property prices within a geographic area e.g. Black Notley. The chart above shows a boxplot for 'CM77 8' as well as the 'CM77' postcode district.
Property price map for Black Notley
Have a look at the interactive price map I created for myself. Use it to explore 'CM77 8' house prices all the way down to individual property plots.
House price map for Black NotleyBlack Notley house price forecasting
I cannot tell what house prices will do in the future and don't believe anyone who says they can. However we can plot price trends, I have done this in the chart below for CM77 8 (Black Notley) compared with the wider postcode district of CM77. You can extrapolate from this based on your own views on future interest rates, inflation and other factors.
House price index for CM77 8
Tip: click on the legend items to show/hide different lines
Download house price index as CSV (premium users only).
The chart above shows changes in 'CM77 8' property prices over the last 20 years. The index is calculated from the average price paid per sqm for property in CM77 8 and is set to 100 in 2004. I'm comparing the trends for CM77 8,Black Notley with the wider postcode district of CM77 What is more interesting is to look at the difference between flats and houses, even those in the same area follow a very different trend, to get a robust enough sample size to see this we need to zoom out and look at house price trends for the entire Braintree local authority.
The dashed lines show nominal house price changes, the solid lines show the same data adjusted for inflation. Economists call this the 'real' price change. You have to take inflation into account when comparing prices over time. It's calculated using the formula:
Real Rate of Return = (1 + Nominal Rate) ÷ (1 + Inflation Rate) – 1In this formula, the nominal rate is the rate of change before any adjustments, and the inflation rate is taken from the Consumer Price Index. The real rate of return is a more accurate measure of change in value, because £1 today does not have the same buying power as £1 in the past. For example, if a savings account pays an interest rate of 3% per year and the inflation rate is 5% per year, the real rate of return is -2%. This means that the investment's value is shrinking by 2% each year.
Historic returns for CM77 8
| CM77 8 sector | CM77 district | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Real | Nominal | Real | |
| 20 yr per annum | 2.8% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| 20 yr total | 73.0% | 2.5% | 82.5% | 8.1% |
| 10 yr per annum | 3.2% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| 10 yr total | 37.3% | 4.2% | 44.2% | 9.5% |
| 5 yr per annum | 1.6% | -2.4% | 2.5% | -1.6% |
| 5 yr total | 8.2% | -11.4% | 12.9% | -7.6% |
| 1 yr per annum | -12.7% | -16.2% | -6.1% | -9.8% |
| 1 yr total | -12.7% | -16.2% | -6.1% | -9.8% |
This table complements the house price index chart above, presenting the data in a more detailed format. It breaks down the information into 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year periods, further categorized by property type. For each period, we display both a per annum rate of change and a total rate of change.
The total rate of change represents the overall change over the entire period. The formula for total return is:
Total return = (Index at end of period ÷ Index at start of period) - 1
The per annum rate of change is the annualized rate of change over the period. This is equivalent to the annual bank savings rate you would need to achieve the same total return over the given period. This annualized return is also known as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The formula for CAGR is:
CAGR = (1 + Total return) ^ (1 ÷ Number of years) - 1
Some specific examples:
- Over the past 20 years, CM77 8 sector have seen a 0.1% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of 2.5% in real terms.
- Over the past 5 years, CM77 district have seen a -1.6% annual change when adjusted for inflation. This translates to a total change of -7.6% in real terms.
Most recent CM77 8 sales
For the most recent sales activity, rather than a summarized average, it is better to see the underlying data. This is shown in the chart below, where blue dots represent individual sales, click on them to see details. If there is an obvious trend you should be able to spot it here amid the noise from outliers.
Tip: hover over dots to see details
Street level data
| Street | Avg size | Avg £sqm | Recent sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Ruck Way, Black Notley, CM77 8R | 90 sqm | £3,463 | 16 |
| Mill Lane, Black Notley, CM77 8H | 107 sqm | £3,935 | 13 |
| Jeffreys Road, Black Notley, CM77 8J | 67 sqm | £3,437 | 13 |
| Denton Crescent, Black Notley, CM77 8Z | 105 sqm | £3,990 | 11 |
| Constable Way, Black Notley, CM77 8F | 104 sqm | £3,555 | 10 |
| Brain Valley Avenue, Black Notley, CM77 8L | 98 sqm | £3,761 | 10 |
| Bedells Avenue, Black Notley, CM77 8N | 96 sqm | £3,819 | 9 |
| Moss End, Black Notley, CM77 8G | 134 sqm | £3,870 | 8 |
Search for your street here.
Nearby geographies
The table below shows how 'CM77 8' compares to the other postcode sectors in CM77.
| Sector | Lower quartile | Median | Upper quartile | Sales in last 2yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO9 1 Halstead | £3,110 sqm | £3,660 sqm | £4,360 sqm | 198 |
| CO6 1 Coggeshall | £3,400 sqm | £4,020 sqm | £4,550 sqm | 189 |
| CO5 9 Kelvedon | £3,700 sqm | £4,060 sqm | £4,510 sqm | 203 |
| CM8 3 Silver End | £3,710 sqm | £4,090 sqm | £4,550 sqm | 174 |
| CM8 1 Witham | £3,340 sqm | £3,860 sqm | £4,560 sqm | 502 |
| CM7 9 Braintree | £3,270 sqm | £3,880 sqm | £4,390 sqm | 227 |
| CM77 8 Black Notley | £3,640 sqm | £4,030 sqm | £4,430 sqm | 127 |
| CM77 7 Great Notley | £3,930 sqm | £4,460 sqm | £4,810 sqm | 128 |
| CM77 6 Rayne | £3,600 sqm | £3,920 sqm | £4,350 sqm | 58 |
| CM7 5 Braintree | £3,420 sqm | £3,890 sqm | £4,590 sqm | 198 |
Raw data
Our analysis of CM77 8 is derived from what is essentially a big table of sold prices from Land Registry with added property size information. Below are three rows from this table to give you an idea.
| Address | Paid | sqm | £/sqm |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64, Bedells Avenue, Black Notley, Great Notley | £339,000
Oct-2024
|
98 | 3,459 |
| 7, Mary Ruck Way, Black Notley, Great Notley | £405,000
Oct-2024
|
116 | 3,491 |
| 16, Osmond Close, Black Notley, Great Notley | £445,000
Sep-2024
|
138 | 3,224 |
About
I created HouseMetric because I wanted to see this data and analysis myself, I also wanted to teach myself to build a website. Please give me feedback or spread the word about it. I'm constantly tinkering and adding more stuff to it.